Philippine Risk Spikes After Senator Evades ICC Warrant for 32 Murders

A chaotic standoff at the Philippine Senate involving a senator wanted by the International Criminal Court has intensified a deepening feud between the country’s two most powerful political dynasties, elevating political risk and threatening to distract the government from economic policy.

“What a historic low for our country,” Senator Risa Hontiveros, a critic of both factions, said in a statement Thursday, capturing the sense of crisis gripping the capital.

The turmoil began Monday after the ICC unsealed a warrant for Senator Ronald dela Rosa, charging him as an “indirect co-perpetrator” in the murder of at least 32 people during his 2016-2018 tenure as national police chief under former President Rodrigo Duterte. That same day, the House of Representatives, dominated by allies of current President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., impeached Vice President Sara Duterte—the former president's daughter. Dela Rosa’s sudden reappearance in the Senate after months in hiding helped install a new, more pro-Duterte leadership in the chamber by a thin 13-24 majority, just as it is set to try the vice president.

The confluence of events signals a significant escalation in the conflict between the Marcos and Duterte camps, allies in their 2022 landslide election victory whose alliance has since publicly shattered. For investors, the infighting raises the risk of political paralysis and unpredictable policy shifts, creating volatility for the Philippine peso and the local stock market. The crisis is the second time in just over a year, following the March 2025 arrest of Rodrigo Duterte himself, that ICC proceedings have thrown the nation’s politics into disarray.

A Chase, Gunfire and an Escape

The week’s events unfolded like a political thriller. On Monday, agents from the National Bureau of Investigation (NBI) attempted to serve the ICC warrant, leading to a chase through the Senate corridors captured on security cameras. Dela Rosa, 64, ultimately evaded agents and sought refuge in the Senate, which granted him protective custody.

The situation escalated on Wednesday evening when gunshots were fired within the building, sparking panic and a lockdown. While officials traded blame for the incident, with President Marcos denying any government arrest order, the chaos provided cover for dela Rosa. On Thursday, Senate President Alan Peter Cayetano, a staunch Duterte ally, confirmed the senator had fled the premises to an undisclosed location.

Marcos-Duterte Feud Paralyzes Politics

The standoff over dela Rosa is a proxy battle in the larger war between President Marcos and his predecessor’s family. The impeachment of Vice President Sara Duterte over alleged corruption and threats against Marcos is a direct assault on the heir-apparent for the 2028 presidential election.

By installing a friendly Senate President, the Duterte faction aims to complicate or block the vice president’s conviction. However, the spectacle of institutional breakdown, with senators shielding a fugitive and gunfire echoing in the legislative hall, damages the country's image. It heightens perceptions of instability, potentially discouraging the foreign investment President Marcos has sought to attract as a key U.S. ally in Asia. The last major political crisis following Rodrigo Duterte's arrest in March 2025 saw the Philippine peso weaken against the dollar, a precedent that market watchers are monitoring closely.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.