Rubio rejects Strait of Hormuz tolls ahead of June 30 talks

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said no country may charge fees for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, rejecting Iran's reported toll proposal as the US and Iran prepare for technical talks on June 30.

"The United States will not accept any attempt to impose tolls on the Strait of Hormuz," Rubio said during a press briefing on Wednesday. The top US diplomat confirmed that technical teams from both countries would resume dialogue on June 30 at the working level.

The Strait of Hormuz handles about 21% of global oil consumption, or roughly 17 million barrels per day, making it the world's most critical energy chokepoint. Brent crude futures have traded with an elevated risk premium since indirect US-Iran talks began earlier this year, with options skew reflecting heightened tail risk.

The rejection removes a near-term catalyst for a spike in oil transportation costs, but the broader risk of supply disruption remains. Any breakdown in the June 30 talks could reintroduce the threat of Iranian harassment of commercial shipping, a scenario that last added $5 to $8 per barrel to crude prices during the 2019 tanker seizures.

The toll proposal emerged as part of broader negotiations between Washington and Tehran, which have been exploring a potential framework for de-escalation. Iran had reportedly floated the idea of charging fees on vessels passing through the strait as a revenue-generating measure, a move that would have effectively taxed a significant portion of global oil shipments. The strait connects Persian Gulf producers — including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, and Iran itself — to international markets.

During the 2019-2020 period of heightened US-Iran tensions, a series of tanker seizures and drone attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities pushed Brent above $75 per barrel, adding an estimated $5 to $8 per barrel in geopolitical risk premium, according to analysts at Energy Aspects. The current situation echoes that period, though the diplomatic channel remains open.

Oil Markets Eye June 30 as Next Risk Event

The scheduled talks come at a time when oil markets are already pricing in considerable uncertainty. Brent crude has averaged about $78 per barrel this quarter, with implied volatility on at-the-money options remaining elevated relative to the five-year average. A successful outcome on June 30 could compress the risk premium by $3 to $5 per barrel, traders said, while a breakdown could widen it further.

The toll rejection also carries implications for shipping and insurance markets. War risk premiums for vessels transiting the strait, which spiked during previous confrontations, could decline if the talks produce tangible progress. The London insurance market currently assesses the strait as a "listed area" with additional premiums for hull and cargo policies.

Iran's economy has been under severe pressure from US sanctions that have slashed its oil exports from about 2.5 million barrels per day in 2018 to roughly 500,000 to 800,000 barrels per day currently, according to tanker tracking data. This economic strain provides context for Tehran's reported interest in alternative revenue sources, including the proposed transit tolls.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.