A three-day ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war, brokered by the US, is set to begin on May 9, accompanied by a significant prisoner exchange, though skepticism remains high after previous failed truces.
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Russia, Ukraine Agree to 3-Day Ceasefire and 1,000-Prisoner Swap
US President Donald Trump on Friday announced a three-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine to begin May 9, a deal that includes the exchange of 1,000 prisoners from each side and marks a significant diplomatic intervention by his administration.
"I am pleased to announce that there will be a THREE DAY CEASEFIRE (May 9th, 10th, and 11th) in the War between Russia and Ukraine," Trump said on his Truth Social network. "This request was made directly by me, and I very much appreciate its agreement by President Vladimir Putin and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy."
The ceasefire coincides with Russia's Victory Day, a major holiday commemorating the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany 81 years ago. The agreement suspends all "kinetic activity" and facilitates a one-for-one prisoner swap involving 2,000 individuals in total.
This temporary truce is a critical test of de-escalation, with global markets watching nervously. A successful, albeit brief, pause in hostilities could temper oil prices and slightly ease geopolitical risk premiums, but a swift return to fighting—as seen in previous ceasefire attempts—would likely amplify market volatility.
A Fragile Peace
The announcement arrived amid continued fighting. Just hours before, Russia and Ukraine traded attacks, with Ukraine's air force reporting 67 Russian drone attacks overnight. President Zelensky said that "despite the declared ceasefire, the enemy has not reduced the intensity of assault operations," a claim Russia mirrored, stating it was "responding symmetrically."
This isn't the first attempt at a truce. Russia had previously announced a unilateral ceasefire for its Victory Day celebration, which Ukraine met with skepticism, having seen its own earlier truce offers ignored. The success of this Trump-brokered deal hinges on whether it can hold where others have failed.
US as Mediator
The deal highlights President Trump's continued efforts to position the US as a key mediator on the global stage, fulfilling a campaign promise to end the war. "Talks are continuing on ending this Major Conflict," Trump added, suggesting this ceasefire could be the "beginning of the end."
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, speaking separately, affirmed the US was prepared to continue its role as a mediator but cautioned, "if relevant efforts 'make no progress,' the US side 'does not want to waste time.'"
This diplomatic push in Eastern Europe contrasts sharply with escalating tensions in the Middle East, where a shaky ceasefire in the U.S. war with Iran is under severe strain after American forces retaliated against Iranian military facilities and disabled two tankers.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
[1] Trump says Russia and Ukraine will have a three-day ceasefire starting on the 9th and exchange 1,000 prisoners of war; US Secretary of State says the US is still prepared to act as a mediator[2] Russia, Ukraine agree to truce and prisoner exchange amid WWII observance[3] US President announces three-day ceasefire between Russia, Ukraine starting Saturday[4] The Latest: Trump says a 3-day Russia-Ukraine ceasefire may be 'beginning of the end'[5] Trump announces three-day Russia-Ukraine ceasefire from May 9, hopes it leads to end of war
