Key Takeaways:
Since returning to the White House in January 2025, President Donald Trump has authorized 14,415 military strikes across four theaters of operations, with the campaign against Iran accounting for the overwhelming majority of the firepower.
The US has bombed more than 13,000 targets inside Iran over 39 days of combat, while simultaneously striking Houthi forces in Yemen, Islamic State positions in Iraq and Syria, and drug trafficking vessels in the Caribbean — a breadth of military engagement unseen since the post-9/11 era.
"The sheer scale of operations across multiple theaters is without modern precedent and is already reshaping risk premiums across energy, currency, and equity markets," said Elena Fischer, geopolitical risk analyst at Edgen.
The campaign includes 1,000 strikes against Houthi targets in Yemen between March and June 2025, more than 100 strikes on Islamic State positions in Iraq and Syria, and 64 strikes on suspected drug trafficking vessels in the Caribbean and Eastern Pacific. The international benchmark for crude oil traded above $92 a barrel on Wednesday, up more than 25% since the war with Iran began on Feb. 28.
The sustained conflict threatens to derail peace negotiations, with Trump warning Iran would "pay the price" for stalled talks. Iran has proved resilient despite weeks of heavy bombing, betting that its ability to effectively close the Strait of Hormuz — a passageway for about 21% of global oil trade — gives it a strong bargaining chip.
Oil at $92 and Rising
The escalation has driven energy prices sharply higher, with Brent crude gaining more than a quarter since late February. The last time oil surged this rapidly in a geopolitical context was during the initial months of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, when Brent briefly touched $130. The Strait of Hormuz chokepoint — through which roughly 21 million barrels of oil pass daily — remains the central risk factor, with Iran signaling it could disrupt traffic if negotiations collapse.
Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan — all of which host US troops — came under Iranian fire this week, marking the second time in days that back-and-forth strikes have tested a two-month ceasefire. Jordan said it shot down five incoming missiles targeting the Muwaffaq Salti Air Base, which hosts American F-35 fighter jets. No casualties were reported.
Negotiations Under Pressure
Trump's approach to the conflict has been erratic. He suggested on Monday that a deal to end the war could be reached within days, then accused Iran of taking "too long to negotiate a deal that would have been great for them" in a Truth Social post Wednesday. The US wants Iran to give up its stockpile of highly enriched uranium — a short technical step from weapons-grade levels — while Iran demands sanctions relief and the release of frozen assets before any final agreement.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appears intent on pursuing more ambitious goals: the collapse of Iran's theocratic government, the elimination of its nuclear program, and the destruction of Hezbollah in Lebanon. That makes compromise harder, even as both Washington and Tehran signal openness to a diplomatic off-ramp.
A delegation from Qatar arrived in Tehran for talks Wednesday, according to an official with knowledge of the visit. Iran's foreign ministry said it would review its stance on negotiations following the latest US strikes.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
