Trump claims 100% control of Hormuz as Iran holds strait hostage

President Donald Trump claims "100%" control of the Strait of Hormuz after mine-clearing, but oil flows remain at 5 million barrels a day — a quarter of pre-war — because Iran refuses to reopen without concessions.

"God willing, we will reach a point where we can get out of this state of neither war nor peace," Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Saturday, as Tehran's Supreme National Security Council secretary demanded a permanent end to the war, an end to the US blockade and financial sanctions, and financial compensation before allowing the strait to reopen.

Brent crude rose 1.7% to $84.99 a barrel Monday, while West Texas Intermediate climbed 1.7% to $79.50, after both benchmarks fell more than 7% last week on hopes of a reopening deal. Kpler data shows only 32 ships transited the strait over the weekend, 17 of which used the Iranian-controlled corridor, down from roughly 20 million barrels per day of oil flows before the US-Israel attack on Feb. 28.

The standoff carries direct consequences for global energy markets and inflation expectations. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve has fallen to its lowest level in four decades, and Iran's Houthi allies in Yemen have begun striking Saudi oil infrastructure. Trump told Axios he is now "only semi-negotiating" with Iran, saying the situation will "work out" on its own — a stance that leaves the world's most critical oil chokepoint in limbo.

Five Months of Failed Deals

The latest claim of control comes a week after Trump teased a deal to reopen the strait "tomorrow or the next day," a prediction echoed by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Aug. 4. No agreement has materialized. Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said Tehran will not begin direct negotiations with Washington while the US breaches the interim deal signed in June, which promised an end to the war in Lebanon and the unfreezing of Iranian bank accounts abroad.

Trump has been unable to follow through on either the military or diplomatic track. He has threatened extreme escalation multiple times, only to back down after his generals warned they lack sufficient ammunition to protect US troops. Each failed round has pushed Iranian leaders to demand more concessions up front while escalating their harassment of Hormuz shipping.

Last week, Iran and Oman struck a bilateral deal to manage the strait with a single inbound lane through Iranian waters and a single outbound lane through Omani waters, giving both countries veto power over traffic. The Trump administration was reportedly willing to support the arrangement, but Araghchi then declared Hormuz would not open without US concessions first.

Wheat Futures Up 30% as War Risks Spread

The war's economic toll extends beyond crude. Wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade rose 1.5% to $6.49 a bushel Monday, up nearly 30% this year, as traders weighed risks to Black Sea grain exports. Eurozone investor confidence turned positive in August for the first time since the war began, but the Sentix index at 0.9 points remains fragile, with high energy costs still dragging on order books.

Rory Johnson, founder of market research firm Commodity Context, wrote that even the current level of US-backed "dark transits" — tankers moving with radio transponders off through Omani waters — is "unsustainable," because not enough empty tankers are entering the Persian Gulf to sustain the flow.

The last time the strait faced a comparable disruption was during the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s, when the "Tanker War" pushed oil prices to record highs and prompted the US Navy to escort Kuwaiti tankers. That conflict took eight years to resolve. The current standoff has already lasted more than five months, and both sides acknowledge they are in a race to the bottom.

"I'd rather make a deal because I don't want to kill people," Trump told supporters last week. The question is whether either side can afford to blink first.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.