Trump says October 7 events, not Israel, led to Iran war

Former President Donald Trump said he was not drawn into the war with Iran by Israel, attributing his administration’s military actions to the aftermath of the October 7 attacks and his long-standing policy that Tehran must be prevented from obtaining a nuclear weapon. The statement, posted on his Truth Social platform, comes as his approval rating hits a new low of 37 percent and negotiators prepare for a tense second round of ceasefire talks.

"We’re not seeing the full picture, but this does suggest a positive momentum towards something that may end up being a comprehensive deal," Yezid Sayigh, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Middle East Center, told Al Jazeera, commenting on the president's often hyperbolic statements. Sayigh noted Trump could have ulterior motives, including a desire to "talk down oil prices and talk stock market prices up."

The clarification from Trump arrives during a fragile ceasefire set to expire early next week. Tensions remain high as Iran continues to keep the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global oil transport, closed to most traffic. The blockade has contributed to a spike in energy costs, with the national average gas price standing at $4.04 per gallon, according to AAA. The White House is dispatching a high-level delegation, including Vice President JD Vance and Jared Kushner, to Pakistan for further negotiations, though Iran's attendance remains unconfirmed.

At stake is the stability of the Middle East and the direction of the global economy, which is reeling from the energy price shock. With 63 percent of American adults disapproving of his performance, according to a recent NBC News poll, Trump faces immense pressure to resolve a conflict that his own energy secretary warned could keep gas prices above $3 until next year. The outcome of the upcoming talks could determine whether the region descends into a wider war or finds a path toward de-escalation.

Ceasefire Talks Hang in Balance

Diplomatic efforts to solidify a lasting peace are fraught with uncertainty. Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has been actively mediating, speaking with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian to facilitate the next round of talks. However, Iran's official IRNA news agency reported the regime had rejected new negotiations, citing the ongoing US naval blockade of its ports as a primary grievance.

The US has maintained a hard line, with Trump threatening to destroy Iranian infrastructure if a deal is not reached. In a recent post, he announced that US forces had "damaged and seized" an Iranian ship, the Touska, attempting to break the blockade. This aggressive posture complicates the diplomatic landscape, even as the White House prepares its negotiating team for a potential meeting in Islamabad.

Economic Pressures Mount

The economic fallout from the conflict is becoming a significant domestic issue for the Trump administration. Energy Secretary Chris Wright admitted in a CNN interview that a drop in gas prices below $3 per gallon "might not happen until next year." This assessment contradicts earlier administration promises of a swift price drop following the war's conclusion.

The conflict's impact extends beyond the gas pump. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted global supply chains, affecting everything from oil to petrochemicals, which are essential for manufacturing plastics, fertilizers, and medicines. The International Energy Agency has warned that Europe has only about six weeks of jet fuel reserves left, raising the possibility of flight cancellations. The U.S. military has deployed over 10,000 service members to enforce its blockade of Iranian ports, an operation that has so far turned back 14 vessels, according to U.S. Central Command.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.