Trump Signals End to Iran War Within 3 Weeks, Easing Market Fears

President Donald Trump has indicated the United States could conclude its month-long war with Iran in as little as two to three weeks, a timeline that has accelerated expectations for a de-escalation in the Middle East and sent ripples through global markets. The move comes as new polling shows a majority of Americans favor a swift end to the conflict.

“We’ll be leaving very soon,” Trump told reporters at the White House, according to Reuters, providing his most definitive timeline yet. He suggested a withdrawal could happen “within two weeks, maybe two weeks, maybe three.”

The remarks align with a recent Ipsos poll conducted for Reuters, which found that approximately two-thirds of Americans believe the U.S. should end the war quickly, even if all military objectives have not been met. The survey also revealed that 4 in 10 Republicans support a prompt conclusion to the campaign, suggesting a broad-based desire to wind down the conflict.

This potential withdrawal marks a significant turning point, likely leading to a repricing of geopolitical risk that has kept oil prices elevated and equity markets on edge for the past month. The announcement suggests a pivot from military engagement toward a focus on ensuring Iran remains incapable of developing a nuclear weapon as a precondition for the U.S. exit.

A 'Risk-On' Shift for Markets

A formal end to the military conflict is expected to trigger a significant "risk-on" sentiment across global asset markets. The geopolitical risk premium that has been priced into crude oil is likely to unwind, potentially leading to a drop in Brent and WTI prices. The last time a similar de-escalation occurred in the Strait of Hormuz, Brent crude prices fell over 8% in the following week.

Conversely, global equity markets, which have been weighed down by the threat of a wider conflict, could see a relief rally. Safe-haven assets such as gold and the U.S. dollar, which benefited from the flight to safety, may see decreased demand. The key condition for the withdrawal, according to Trump, is not a diplomatic agreement but a military reality. "Iran doesn’t have to make a deal, no," the president stated, emphasizing the goal was to leave Iran sufficiently weakened.

Domestic Pressure for De-escalation

The president's timeline appears to be in sync with a notable shift in U.S. public opinion. The Ipsos/Reuters poll highlights a growing weariness with the conflict. The finding that a substantial portion of Trump's own political base—40 percent of Republicans—favors a quick withdrawal provides a strong domestic political incentive for the administration to bring the operation to a close.

This sentiment reflects a broader public desire to avoid prolonged military engagements in the Middle East. The administration's apparent responsiveness to this mood could bolster its standing ahead of future political events, framing the withdrawal as a fulfillment of a promise to end costly foreign wars. The focus now shifts to the upcoming prime-time speech on Wednesday, where a formal announcement is anticipated.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.