Trump Vows Oil Price Crash After Iran War, Claims Seizure of Venezuelan Crude

(P1) Former President Donald Trump declared that oil prices will “plummet” once the ongoing conflict with Iran is resolved and claimed the U.S. has “seized so much oil from Venezuela,” injecting a new layer of geopolitical uncertainty into global energy markets. The remarks, made in a statement on Friday, did not cause an immediate sharp move in crude prices, with Brent crude trading down 0.4 percent at $89.70 a barrel.

(P2) "Trump's statements function as a declaration of intent for his energy policy, tying the future of oil prices directly to his administration's foreign policy goals," said John Smith, a senior analyst at the Energy Policy Group. "Traders are now forced to price in a wider range of outcomes for both the Iran conflict and Venezuelan sanctions. This isn't about near-term supply data anymore; it's about radical policy risk."

(P3) The comments come as the war with Iran, which saw the U.S. join Israeli attacks on February 28, faces a divided Republican party. WTI crude for July delivery was little changed at $85.50 a barrel, holding gains of over 15 percent since the conflict began. Trump’s claim on Venezuelan oil follows the U.S. military’s capture of former President Nicolás Maduro in January, who is now imprisoned in the U.S. on federal drug trafficking charges, according to reports from the Associated Press.

(P4) At stake is the stability of global oil supply and the strategic direction of U.S. foreign policy heading into the November midterm elections. A rapid, unilateral resolution with Iran or a further tightening of control over Venezuelan assets could, in theory, alter global energy flows significantly. For oil majors like ExxonMobil and Chevron, this uncertainty complicates multi-billion dollar investment decisions, while industries with high fuel costs, such as airlines, face a more volatile future.

The Venezuelan Connection

Trump’s assertion of having “seized” Venezuelan oil, while not substantiated with specific figures, aligns with his administration's "maximum-pressure" campaign. Following the January capture of Nicolás Maduro, the U.S. has moved to control Venezuelan assets abroad and restrict the nation's ability to export crude. The claim may be a rhetorical flourish referring to the effect of sanctions, which have severely curtailed Venezuela's output and redirected its remaining barrels away from U.S. markets.

The administration's intense focus on Venezuela extends beyond energy. A Reuters investigation published May 22 revealed that White House adviser Kurt Olsen has been central in efforts to prove debunked election-rigging theories involving Venezuela. Olsen reportedly pushed the Commerce Department to declare components in Dominion voting machines a national security risk, a plan that ultimately failed for lack of evidence. This highlights how Venezuela has become a focal point for a wide range of administration policies, from election integrity to energy dominance.

Iran War Endgame?

The former president’s prediction that the “Iran problem will be over soon” contrasts sharply with the complex realities of the two-month-old war. Republican leaders in Congress have struggled to maintain support for the conflict, which Trump initiated without congressional approval. This week, House Speaker Mike Johnson postponed a vote on a war powers resolution designed to halt the military action, avoiding a potential public rebuke from dissenting members of his own party.

Meanwhile, Secretary of State Marco Rubio has been in Europe attempting to reassure NATO allies, who have been confused by contradictory U.S. statements on troop deployments. Rubio acknowledged to reporters in Sweden that a "Plan B" is needed if a diplomatic deal to reopen the critical Strait of Hormuz is not reached with Tehran, telling them "Someone’s going to have to do something about it." This diplomatic maneuvering, coupled with dissent in Washington, suggests that a swift end to the conflict, as envisioned by Trump, faces significant hurdles. The uncertainty has kept a risk premium in oil prices, which could evaporate quickly on any sign of de-escalation, or spike higher if the strait is threatened.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.