Trump's 9 PM Iran speech to test oil above $100

Global markets are bracing for President Trump’s first national address on the Iran war, a speech that could either de-escalate the conflict or lock in a protracted period of $100-plus oil.

President Donald Trump’s first primetime address on the Iran war Wednesday night presents a critical test of his ability to calm global markets roiled by oil prices trading above $116 a barrel.

"'I came, I saw, I conquered'—we conquer for a few more weeks—and then maybe a ceasefire," former White House chief strategist Steve Bannon said, summarizing the expected tone.

The conflict, now in its fifth week, has sent Brent crude soaring over 60% and prompted warnings from analysts of a potential spike toward $200 a barrel. The uncertainty has rippled through financial markets, with stocks swinging on every update from the Middle East.

With the U.S. economy facing a potential stagflationary shock, the 9 p.m. EST speech forces Trump to balance a victory declaration with the unresolved crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, which threatens to trigger a global energy crisis not seen since the 1970s.

Hormuz Impasse Pits Trump Against Tehran

The core of the market's anxiety lies in the Strait of Hormuz. The administration has signaled it wants to wind down the war, but Trump has made any ceasefire conditional on the waterway reopening. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has countered, stating the strait is under its “absolute control” and will not be opened to enemies. The blockade has effectively removed some 11 million barrels per day of oil from global flows, according to Bloomberg analysis. The situation is further complicated by Iran-backed Houthi militants, who have now entered the war and threaten to disrupt the alternate Red Sea shipping routes that have provided a small outlet for Saudi oil.

NATO Allies Become Target of Trump's Ire

Facing a protracted crisis, Trump has turned his frustration on NATO allies. He has publicly demanded European nations “go get your own oil” and privately fumed that countries like Italy and the United Kingdom have denied U.S. forces the use of their military bases and airspace for the conflict. In an interview, he labeled NATO a "paper tiger" and said he was "beyond reconsidering" America's central role in the alliance. This escalating rhetoric against historical partners adds another layer of geopolitical risk, unsettling investors who rely on the stability of the transatlantic alliance.

While Trump is expected to project strength and declare mission accomplished, the underlying economic risks remain acute. The speech will be scrutinized not just for its rhetoric but for any concrete steps toward reopening the world's most critical energy chokepoint. Failure to provide a clear path to de-escalation could force the global economy into a painful and rapid energy transition as supplies tighten and prices continue to climb.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.