US Central Command denies Hormuz closure as 25 vessels transit

Despite Iran's repeated claim that it has closed the Strait of Hormuz, US Central Command confirmed the waterway remains open, with Kpler data showing 25 vessels transiting Bab el-Mandeb in a single day.

"This is incorrect. In fact, the Strait of Hormuz remains open to commercial shipping. Iran does not control the strait," US Central Command said in a statement, adding that thousands of vessels have passed through the international waterway over the past four months.

Kpler shipping data shows 25 commodity vessels passed through the Bab el-Mandeb strait in a single day, with 18 entering and seven exiting. The traffic included two very large crude carriers, one Suezmax tanker and five Aframax tankers. Meanwhile, only two vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz, both in ballast and entering the waterway. Some ships could still be sailing with their transponders turned off, which are not considered in the counts.

The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly 20 percent of global oil consumption, making it the world's most critical energy chokepoint. Even a refuted closure claim can trigger short-term volatility in crude oil prices and energy-related equities. If markets partially price in escalation risk, oil could spike sharply; conversely, the US Central Command's firm denial could help stabilize prices.

Hormuz Traffic Data Contradicts Closure Claim

The Kpler data provides a direct counterpoint to Iran's assertion. While the Bab el-Mandeb strait — the southern gateway to the Red Sea — saw active traffic, the Strait of Hormuz itself recorded only two transits, both in ballast and entering the waterway. This low figure could reflect either reduced shipping activity or vessels sailing dark with transponders off, a practice that has become more common in the region since the 2019 tanker attacks.

The last time Iran threatened to close the strait was during the 2019 tanker attacks, when oil prices spiked briefly before retreating as the US and its allies maintained naval patrols in the region. The current situation follows a similar pattern — the claim is being publicly refuted at the highest military level, and shipping data suggests the waterway remains operational.

Oil Risk Premium Hinges on Escalation, Not Rhetoric

The market impact of this episode will depend on whether traders view Iran's claim as credible posturing or a precursor to physical action. Energy equities could see sector rotation if the risk premium builds, while defensive assets may attract flows during any uncertainty spike. The key variable is whether Iran takes any concrete action against shipping — a far more consequential escalation than a verbal claim.

For crude oil benchmarks such as Brent and WTI, the immediate risk is asymmetric. A confirmed disruption at Hormuz would be a supply shock of historic proportions, given that roughly 20 percent of global oil consumption passes through the strait daily. But the US Central Command's categorical denial, combined with visible shipping data, suggests the market may treat this as noise rather than signal.

The situation bears watching for further developments, particularly any Iranian naval activity near the strait or changes in tanker routing patterns. For now, the data tells a clear story: the Strait of Hormuz remains open, and the world's oil supply chain continues to function.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.