US-Iran nuclear talks show progress with a reported $20 billion deal

A second round of US-Iran negotiations is under discussion, a White House official told CNBC, as conflicting reports emerge about the details of a potential deal to curb Tehran's nuclear program. While President Donald Trump asserted the US would acquire Iran's enriched uranium "without payment," media reports suggest a $20 billion deal to unfreeze Iranian assets is on the table.

"Whether we have further conversations, whether we ultimately get to a deal, I really think the ball is in the Iranian court, because we put a lot on the table," Vice President JD Vance, who led the US delegation, told Fox News. In contrast, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on X that the US team was met with "maximalism, shifting goalposts, and blockade."

The potential breakthrough involves a three-page memorandum of understanding, according to a media report on Friday citing US officials. The plan would see the US unfreeze $20 billion of Iranian funds in exchange for Iran's entire enriched uranium stockpile. This follows earlier negotiation stages where the US reportedly offered to release $6 billion for humanitarian purposes, while Iran demanded $27 billion. Oil prices fell on the news of potential progress, while stocks moved higher.

This development matters because a deal could significantly lower the geopolitical risk premium in energy markets, particularly concerning the Strait of Hormuz, which handles about 20% of the world's oil. President Trump had responded to stalled talks last week by announcing a blockade of the strait, a move that followed a fragile two-week ceasefire set to expire on April 21.

Sticking Points Remain

Despite the positive signals, significant disagreements persist. According to reports, the US has demanded all of Iran's nuclear material be shipped to American territory. Iran has resisted, proposing to dilute the material within its own borders. A potential compromise involves transferring the high-enriched uranium to a neutral third country.

Another point of contention is the duration of the nuclear program's suspension. The US has pushed for a 20-year pause, while Iran has countered with a five-year proposal. The current draft memorandum reportedly includes a "voluntary" suspension of uranium enrichment and a commitment that all of Iran's nuclear facilities will be above ground.

Market Reaction and Path Forward

The market's reaction highlights the high stakes involved. The last time tensions flared this high in the region, crude oil prices jumped over 10% in a single week. The current easing of prices suggests traders are cautiously optimistic that diplomacy will prevail over conflict.

Officials from both countries could return to Islamabad, Pakistan, to resume talks as early as this week, according to Reuters. "The coming rounds of talks can come sometime later this week or earlier next week. But nothing is finalised as of now," an official at the Iranian embassy in Islamabad told the newswire. With the ceasefire deadline looming, the next few days will be critical in determining whether the two sides can finalize an agreement or if tensions will escalate once more.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.