Reports of a potential 14-point memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran to end hostilities have sent crude oil prices tumbling and boosted equity markets.
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US-Iran talks on 14-point deal send oil below $101
Reports of a potential 14-point memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran to end hostilities have sent crude oil prices tumbling and boosted equity markets.
The United States and Iran are nearing a preliminary agreement to end their conflict, with a 14-point memorandum of understanding being finalized that has already driven Brent crude prices down over 8 percent to below $101 a barrel.
"We will close this very soon. We are getting close,” a source involved in the Pakistan-hosted mediation told Axios, indicating that negotiations are in their most advanced stage since the conflict began.
The draft agreement, reported by multiple US media outlets citing sources familiar with the talks, includes a 30-day window for detailed negotiations and an Iranian commitment to pause uranium enrichment for 12 to 15 years. In return, the US would begin easing sanctions and release billions in frozen assets.
The potential breakthrough, which hinges on Iran's response in the next 48 hours, could significantly de-escalate geopolitical risk and restore critical energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, where about 21 percent of global oil consumption passes daily.
The Nuclear Framework
At the heart of the memorandum is a significant shift in Tehran's nuclear posture. According to the draft, Iran is considering a halt to uranium enrichment for 12 to 15 years, though Washington is pushing for a 20-year commitment. The framework also reportedly includes the transfer of Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile out of the country, a long-standing US demand.
In exchange, the US is expected to gradually lift economic sanctions and unfreeze billions of dollars in Iranian funds. The talks are being led on the US side by envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, according to a source familiar with the process. However, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio described the negotiations as highly technical and complex, and officials caution that internal divisions in Tehran could complicate a final agreement.
Market Reaction and De-escalation
News of the potential deal triggered a sharp reaction in global markets. Brent crude fell more than 8% to around $100 a barrel, its largest single-day drop in months, as traders priced in the possibility of Iranian supply returning to the market. Equity markets rallied on the reduced geopolitical risk, while safe-haven assets like government bonds saw yields decline.
The diplomatic progress follows President Donald Trump’s decision to pause “Project Freedom,” a naval mission intended to reopen the Strait of Hormuz that had failed to restore normal shipping traffic. In a social media post, Trump stated the operation was paused "to see whether or not the Agreement can be finalized and signed.” The last time a comprehensive nuclear deal was reached with Iran, the 2015 JCPOA, it led to a significant, albeit temporary, increase in Iranian oil exports and a multi-year low in regional risk premiums.
While the current draft reportedly does not address Iran's missile program or its support for regional militias, a successful MoU could pave the way for broader discussions. The next round of detailed negotiations is expected to take place in either Islamabad or Geneva.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
[1] Report: US and Iran plan to finalize a 14-point framework memorandum, with negotiations potentially resuming as early as next week in Islamabad[2] US Iran deal talks move closer to breakthrough[3] Iran-US war breakthrough soon? 14-point MoU to be finalised, says report[4] US Iran nuclear deal negotiations move closer[5] US and Iran nearing 14-point memorandum to "end the war", reports Axios
