US Probes $2.6 Billion in Oil Trades on Possible Iran War Leaks

The US Justice Department is investigating whether traders used inside knowledge of US-Iran war announcements to profit from more than $2.6 billion in oil trades.

The US Department of Justice has launched an investigation into a series of large and suspiciously timed oil trades, questioning whether traders profited from non-public information related to the war with Iran. The probe, conducted with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, is examining more than $2.6 billion in transactions that correctly anticipated sharp market moves following key announcements from the Trump administration.

The investigation follows calls from Democratic lawmakers, including Senators Elizabeth Warren and Sheldon Whitehouse, who previously urged regulators to examine “abnormally timed” trades that suggested potential leaks of sensitive information. The core of the inquiry is whether traders were tipped off about US military actions, ceasefire negotiations, or diplomatic statements before they were made public.

Several trades are under scrutiny for their timing. One notable transaction involved a $500 million bet against oil prices just minutes before President Trump’s surprise March 23 announcement that he would delay further military action against Iran, a move that caused prices to fall. Another includes nearly $960 million in short positions placed shortly before a ceasefire announcement on April 7. More recently, on May 6, traders dumped more than $700 million in Brent and WTI futures within five minutes, an hour before a media report hinted at a diplomatic breakthrough, sending WTI down 7 percent and Brent 7.8 percent by the close.

The probe raises critical questions about the integrity of commodity markets and the security of sensitive government information during a major conflict. The possibility that war-related policy decisions were leaked for financial gain could undermine public trust and expose significant vulnerabilities in the handling of market-moving intelligence. The last time allegations of similar government leaks surfaced during a geopolitical crisis, it led to a multi-year investigation that tightened compliance protocols across federal agencies.

Sanctions and Market Pressure

The investigation into the trades comes as Washington continues to apply economic pressure on Tehran and its allies. The US Treasury on Thursday announced fresh sanctions against Iraqi Deputy Oil Minister Ali Maarij Al-Bahadly and other officials, accusing them of helping divert oil to benefit Iran-backed groups. The move is part of a broader strategy to cripple the financial networks supporting Tehran’s war effort.

The conflict and associated sanctions have already had a measurable impact on global energy supplies. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright recently stated that Iran’s oil production has fallen by an estimated 400,000 barrels per day, with further declines expected as its storage facilities reach capacity. The volatility has become so extreme that some major players, like Occidental Petroleum, have reportedly paused new crude hedging activities. Federal Reserve officials have also begun to warn that the Mideast conflict could become a “persistent inflationary shock” for the US economy.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.