The US and Iran are locked in a stalemate where both sides see time as leverage, making a diplomatic off-ramp increasingly narrow and raising the risk of a miscalculation that could trigger a new war.
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US Weighs New Iran Strikes as Standoff Risks War for 3rd Month
(Bloomberg) -- The Trump administration is preparing for a new round of military strikes against Iran even as diplomatic efforts continue, according to people familiar with the matter, threatening to reignite a conflict that has shuttered one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints for three months. As of Friday afternoon, no final decision on a strike had been made.
The debate in Washington is intensifying, with some officials urging military action while others counsel restraint. “Our commander-in-chief needs to allow America’s skilled armed forces to finish the destruction of Iran’s conventional military capabilities and reopen the strait,” Sen. Roger Wicker, chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, said in a statement. That stands in contrast to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who told reporters Friday there has been “some slight progress” in indirect talks, though he acknowledged significant gaps remain.
Those gaps are vast. The United States is demanding Iran halt uranium enrichment for 20 years, while Tehran wants an end to all strikes, security guarantees, and recognition of its sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. Before the conflict, the strait carried roughly 25 percent of global oil trade and 20 percent of liquefied natural gas, and its closure has injected significant volatility into energy markets.
A renewed conflict could trigger a broad market sell-off and a sharp increase in oil prices, while boosting safe-haven assets like gold and the US dollar. The core of the dispute remains Iran’s nuclear program and control over the Strait of Hormuz, which former U.S. official Aaron David Miller says will be the key measure of success or failure for Washington, leaving President Trump sensitive to any perception of having lost.
A Deal Too Far
Despite rounds of indirect talks mediated by Pakistan and, more recently, Qatar, both sides appear to believe time is on their side. “Both believe time is on their side and they have the upper hand, and that perception is precisely what is making a deal impossible,” said Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group. This dynamic has created a deadlock where neither Washington nor Tehran is willing to make the painful concessions needed for a breakthrough.
For Iran, concessions on its missile program, nuclear capabilities, or control of the Strait are not policy tools but ideological pillars. A senior Iranian official told Reuters that giving them up is not compromise, but surrender. “We fight, we die, but we don't accept humiliation. Surrender is fundamentally incompatible with Iran's identity,” the official said. While Tehran is feeling the pressure of a battered economy, it is seeking a preliminary deal to reopen Hormuz under its oversight in exchange for lifting the U.S. blockade—a proposal Washington has so far rejected.
The Military Calculus
Even for the world’s most powerful military, forcing the Strait of Hormuz open is a perilous task. Military experts warn that any attempt to escort commercial ships would expose American forces to a dense and evolving web of Iranian drone, missile, and naval mine threats. “The American people would not be happy if Iran actually hit one of our native ships doing this,” said Mark Montgomery, a retired rear admiral and senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. “They would expect [Trump] to begin full-scale military operations back in Iran.”
Iran has mastered asymmetric warfare in the Gulf, relying on inexpensive but effective tools. Its Shahed kamikaze drones and a large inventory of naval mines create a persistent, dispersed threat that is difficult to neutralize. Securing the strait would require a massive and sustained US operation involving air defense, mine-clearing, and electronic warfare, all under constant threat of attack. The last time the U.S. engaged in a similar, albeit smaller-scale, escort mission during the “Tanker War” of the 1980s, the USS Samuel B. Roberts struck a mine, blowing a 21-foot hole in its hull and injuring 10 sailors.
The current standoff is a war of endurance. Despite initial US and Israeli strikes, Iran’s will has not broken. Danny Citrinowicz, a former head of the Iran branch in Israeli Defense Intelligence, argued that overestimating pressure and underestimating Tehran’s resilience carries its own danger. “It raises the risk that Washington once again enters a confrontation expecting coercion to produce capitulation, and discovers, too late, that the regime was prepared to absorb far more pain than anticipated,” he said.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
[1] Informed sources: US preparing for a new round of military strikes against Iran, but no final decision has been made yet[2] Analysis-No deal, no exit: How US-Iran standoff risks fresh conflict[3] Sen. Wicker tells Trump to ‘finish the job’ on Iran[4] Live updates: Rubio says ‘slight progress,’ Iran says deal not close[5] Why reopening Strait of Hormuz is ‘too high’ a risk for merchants — even with mi...
