A Houthi attack on a Saudi oil tanker in the Red Sea has pushed the EU naval mission to raise its threat assessment to the highest level, threatening a fresh surge in shipping costs and oil prices.
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Houthi attack on Saudi tanker raises Red Sea risk to highest level
A Houthi attack on a Saudi oil tanker in the Red Sea has pushed the EU naval mission to raise its threat assessment to the highest level, threatening a fresh surge in shipping costs and oil prices.
The EU naval operation ASPIDES on Friday upgraded its security assessment for the Bab al-Mandab Strait and the southern Red Sea from medium to high after the militia attacked a Saudi oil tanker earlier in the week, causing a fire on board. The assessment for the northern Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden remains at medium, the mission headquarters in Larissa, Greece, said in a statement.
"The ongoing conflicts in the region — particularly the progressively expanding war between the US, Israel and Iran — have significantly altered the security situation and the risk of escalation remains high," the mission said. "Houthi forces continue to threaten commercial shipping which could be perceived as having links to the current conflict in the Middle East."
The Houthi militia declared a "blockade" of shipping for Saudi Arabia on Monday, the same day a Saudi oil tanker was struck in the Red Sea. The militia said it had attacked two tankers that had violated its declared blockade, according to the militia-controlled news agency Saba. Saudi Arabia responded by striking Yemen's Hodeidah port, the Houthis said, marking a significant escalation in the conflict that had been largely contained since a 2022 ceasefire.
The attack has triggered immediate consequences for commercial shipping. Ship insurers have begun restricting war coverage for Saudi Arabian cargoes transiting the Red Sea, according to industry sources, a move that could force vessels to take the longer route around the Cape of Good Hope. The last time war risk premiums spiked to similar levels was during the peak of Houthi attacks in late 2023 and early 2024, when major container lines diverted from the Red Sea for months, adding roughly $1 million in fuel costs per round trip between Asia and Europe.
The EU mission warned that further attacks on merchant ships cannot be ruled out, citing a particular risk of assaults involving anti-ship missiles, unmanned aerial vehicles, unmanned watercraft and small attack craft. ASPIDES recommended that vessels avoid Yemeni territorial waters altogether and, where possible, navigate closer to the African coast to reduce the risk of potential attacks.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres said he was "deeply alarmed" by the resumption of Houthi attacks, warning they threatened to further escalate tensions in the region.
The Red Sea chokepoint handles about 12 percent of global seaborne trade, including roughly 8 million barrels of oil and petroleum products daily. A sustained disruption could push Brent crude prices higher and reignite inflationary pressures in European and Asian economies that depend on the waterway for energy imports. The last Houthi campaign in 2023-2024 added an estimated 30 to 50 percent to container freight rates from Asia to Europe and contributed to a 10 percent increase in global shipping costs, according to data from the Baltic Exchange.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
[1] Saudi vessel attacked while sailing in the Red Sea on Friday[2] Ship insurers restrict war coverage for Saudi Arabian cargoes in Red Sea[3] Tanker exits Red Sea dark as China ship heads towards strait[4] EU mission sees greater risk for merchant ships in Red Sea[5] Saudi strike targets Yemen's Hodeidah port after attack on Saudi vessel, Houthis say
