Iran accuses US, Israel of plotting militant groups in 2 regions

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps accused the United States and Israel of plotting to establish anti-government and extremist organizations in the country's southeast and northwest, the latest escalation in rhetoric as a 60-day ceasefire unravels following fresh exchanges of fire.

"The US and Israel planned at different stages to establish anti-government and extremist groups in southeastern and northwestern Iran to carry out attacks," the IRGC Ground Force Commander said Wednesday, according to state media. He added that Iran's armed forces — including the IRGC, the regular army and the Basij militia — took preemptive action to thwart the plots. Washington and Tel Aviv have not yet responded to the allegations.

The accusation comes as the US-Iran ceasefire, signed in mid-June, has all but collapsed. President Donald Trump declared the truce "over" this week after US Central Command struck more than 80 Iranian targets in and around the Strait of Hormuz, including air defense systems, coastal radar sites and IRGC naval vessels. Iran retaliated by launching missiles and drones at US military facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait, triggering air raid sirens across both Gulf states.

Brent crude surged more than 6 percent on the renewed hostilities, while India's Sensex and Nifty tumbled over 2 percent on fears of prolonged disruption to energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that handles about 21 percent of global oil trade. Ship-tracking firm Kpler reported 36 to 41 daily vessel crossings this week, largely in line with the prior week's average, though the risk premium embedded in crude options has widened sharply.

Escalation Beyond the Battlefield

The IRGC's accusation of foreign-backed militant plots adds a new dimension to a conflict that has already expanded beyond direct US-Iran exchanges. Washington said it struck more than 80 Iranian military targets, while Tehran claimed it retaliated by targeting US facilities in the Gulf. Maritime security has also deteriorated after multiple commercial vessels were hit near the Strait of Hormuz, including a Qatari LNG tanker and a Saudi-flagged crude oil carrier.

The last time Iran leveled similar accusations of foreign-backed insurgent activity was in 2022, when it claimed the US and Israel were supporting separatist groups in its border regions. That period saw heightened internal security operations but did not trigger a broader military confrontation with Washington.

Washington has also tightened economic pressure by revoking a sanctions waiver that had allowed limited Iranian oil exports, a move Tehran called a breach of the interim framework. The Treasury Department gave businesses until July 17 to wind down transactions, pushing oil prices higher as traders assessed the risks to global supply.

What's at Stake

The dual-track escalation — military strikes and accusations of covert operations — leaves little room for the diplomatic off-ramp that mediators Qatar and Pakistan have been trying to preserve. Qatari officials have indicated that talks could resume after funeral ceremonies for Iran's late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei conclude on July 10, but the window for negotiation is narrowing with each fresh exchange.

For markets, the key risk remains the Strait of Hormuz. Any sustained disruption to the waterway could push Brent above $100 a barrel, according to options pricing, while safe-haven demand has already lifted gold and the US dollar. Defense sector stocks have also rallied as investors price in prolonged military engagement in the region.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.